Larry,
It’s really a matter of the nature of HR. HR is sensitive the environment, particularly temperature. For every degree over 70 F your bpm will increase by about 1. Therefore, your experience is consistent with that phenomenon. You tested in environment A but are training in environment B. (HR is also 4 beats higher in the PM than AM for the same intensity. Indoor training is about 5 beats lower than outdoor, if you ate in the last hour HR is 5 beats higher, if you are stressed HR is higher…)
This is also evident from your own data: You can maintain 172 for 15 minutes, but struggle with it for 5 minutes just a coupe of days later. The difference? The environment.
I think your LTHR is indeed 172, but it’s 172 when training in the conditions under which you tested your LTHR.
Sometimes, it’s not HR, it’s just fatigue. Even if you switched to a power meter, there will be days when you can’t hold Zone 3 power if you are thrashed.
The workarounds are not only a power meter, but also just giving yourself permission to use perceived effort on some days.
David