Estimating 5k time for zones from hilly 5k’s

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    Hey y’all 🙂 I’ve just ran two 5ks in the last 2 weeks, both with very similar climbs in them, 200-250 feet of mostly non-stop climbing, which for many runners around here, is nothing, but I still suck at hills, definitely a weakness I’m working on.

    I set my adult PR last week, than broke that again this week by 1:27. With both of these races, and especially today, I’m feeling confident that I could run a flat 5k about 1:00 to 1:30 faster than these hilly races. My splits for the race today for the 1st and last mile were almost identical, and the hill climbing was mostly in the second mile. Without the hill climbing I think I could have hit almost dead even splits for each mile and finished 1 to 1:30 faster.

    Anyways, what do you all think of using that to update zones? I know I could go out and do a 20 minute time trial next week, but with these two 5ks, and also given I train mostly in a flat park, feeling 95% confident in at least adjusting down 1 minute so I can just stick to my planned workouts this week.

    Any thoughts?


    Few other bits:

    Training Peaks NGP has me at the equivalent of 1 minute faster.
    Strava’s GAP has it a bit faster, 1:30 faster
    Online hill calculator adjustment has me about 1 minute faster.
    My RPE on the hills and training, 1 minute faster feels very doable on a flat course.

    I trust TP’s NGP and my RPE especially, so thinking 1 minute adjustment would be safe bet.

    I also have this question simply because there are rarely any flat races out here, yet I train in a flat park, so being able to adjust like this without having to do races + time trials all the time would be ideal 😛

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