I’m also loath to depart from my goal plans. But I also appreciate the need to keep everything real, including building relationships.
It may be a bit mathematical, but one approach is to enter your goal pace and distance into the Training Peaks Workout Builder and look at the TSS for the run. If it’s not too far off from your plan go for it and any adjustments to your plan should be minimal.
At the moment I am building data with the Stryd Power Center. Although I have not yet accumulated 45 days of workouts I am amazed at the realistic projections for racing that are emerging. So, another approach may be to load the course onto Stryd along with climate predictions to get an estimate of just hard you will need work to achieve the paces you want to run with your friend. If it matches you current fitness you should be good to go. This would be my preferred method because it appears to be an accurate estimate of my current fitness at any given distance. (But, I’m still learning).