Low Fitness Gain Forecasted


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    I am training for my first triathlon using the Triathlon Half-ironman Level 1 training plan. I am just starting week 5 of 18. Training Peaks tells me that I am currently at a fitness of 67 CTL and will be at 71 CTL at the end of this plan. This seems like little progress for the next 13 weeks, and I feel I have lots I need to develop. Should I expect a higher fitness increase and need to start modifying the plan or change to a different plan?


    It is now one week late. I am starting week 6 of 18 and currently at 73 CTL, while Training Peaks says I will be at 72 CTL on race day (a drop of one fitness). Any advice is appreciated.

    Leyla Porteous

    Hi nmz027.

    First thing to ensure is that your zones are set correctly so that Training Peaks is calculating the correct TSS for each workout.

    Here is a resource that will walk you through that if you haven’t set up the swim, bike and run zones to 80/20 zones yet.

    Understanding Your TrainingPeaks.com Structured Workout Plan

    If you are still concerned about your predicted CTL here is a great article by Coach David that covers the limitations of predicting race performance on the CTL score in TrainingPeaks.

    Your Performance Management Chart Is Lying To You

    Happy Training,
    Coach Leyla


    This was super helpful! Thank you very much for the information and the reply.

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